The subsidy policy for cotton in Xinjiang is in the making
Release time:2021-11-12
Xinjiang cotton storage Xinjiang cotton harvest cold cotton subsidy policy in
the brewing Xinjiang cotton storage on August 31 embarrassing end, 81,300 tons of storage results and the original plan of 150,000 tons.
A person familiar with the matter told this reporter on August 28 that before the storage, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Agricultural Development Bank of China, etc. had gone to Xinjiang, Shandong and other places for field research, and also conveyed the idea of storage - the purpose of the storage is to solve the problem of repayment of cotton in Xinjiang, and there is no intention to guide the price of cotton.
However, only half of the first round of storage was collected, which greatly surprised the market.
A person in charge of Shandong Cotton and Linen Company attributed it to the strict terms of collection and storage. "The collection and storage is only for the new system of cotton, and nearly two-thirds of Xinjiang cotton is blocked out of the storage door.
In view of this, if sales remain sluggish during the new cotton market period from mid-September to October, the government may also introduce new favorable policies.
August 31 is the day after the state collects and stores Xinjiang cotton in 2007/08 (September 2007-August 2008).
After half an hour of storage, the China Cotton Reserve Management Corporation only received 100 tons of cotton, while the day's storage plan was 28,000 tons.
On August 19, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and the Agricultural Development Bank of China jointly issued the Notice on Issuing the 2007 (September 2007-August 2008) National Reserve Cotton Procurement and Storage Plan.
China Cotton Storage also immediately issued an announcement that it will be implemented in batches, batch (August 21-August 26) tentatively 150,000 tons, Xinjiang storage point storage high to the standard grade (328 grade) 13,400 yuan per ton, 13,600 yuan / ton in the mainland. At present, the spot market trading price of the same kind of cotton is 13,678 yuan/ton.
However, since August 21, Xinjiang cotton storage began to expand, the actual daily storage of cotton in the storage has been declining. The government originally planned to complete the collection and storage of 150,000 tons of Xinjiang cotton in six days, but the actual storage capacity was only 74,100 tons by August 26.
This forced the cotton storage to be postponed to August 31, and by August 31, the cumulative storage was still only 81,300 tons, far less than the 150,000 tons of storage plan.
In the spot market, cotton prices not only did not rise because of storage, but on the day of storage, cotton over-the-counter matching transactions, futures transactions, and spot prices all showed a downward trend. From August 21 to 25, China's cotton price index fell by 13 yuan/ton, and the average matching price also fell by more than 100 yuan.
A person in charge of Shandong Cotton and Linen Company said on August 28 that the cotton enterprises he contacted were able to accept the storage price of 13,400 yuan/ton-13,600 yuan/ton, but the cotton on hand of many enterprises did not meet the storage conditions.
A cotton company in Xinjiang said that although the company has a lot of cotton, less than 20% of it meets the conditions for storage and storage.
According to the announcement of China Cotton Reserve, the Xinjiang cotton collected and stored must be new system cotton, and the enterprises involved must be registered in Xinjiang. Since the reform of the cotton system in 2005, the cotton participating in the reform has been different from other cottons in terms of packaging, inspection and instruments. In 2007/08, Xinjiang purchased 3.29 million tonnes of cotton, including 1.26 million tonnes of new cotton, while only 1.5 million tonnes of the country's 8 million tonnes of cotton output that year was new.
Chen Xiaoyan, an analyst at Textile Network, said on August 31 that it was estimated that there were only 421 enterprises that met the conditions for the collection and storage, while there were more than 10,000 cotton enterprises in the country.
The price problem is also one of the factors that the storage is cold.
Chen Xiaoyan said that although the storage price is similar to the spot market price, it can only be equal to the cost price of the enterprise, and some of the cotton enterprises she contacted have a certain reluctance to sell.
The above-mentioned Shandong cotton and linen company told reporters that considering the storage fee and loan interest of 1,000 yuan per ton a year, the cost price of cotton on hand of cotton enterprises has been close to 14,000 yuan/ton.
In fact, in mid-August, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Agricultural Development Bank of China, the All-China Federation of Supply and Marketing Cooperatives, and the China Cotton Reserve jointly set up a research team to go to Xinjiang, Shandong, Hubei and other places for investigation.
According to people familiar with the matter, this survey is a routine survey before the new cotton market in September, and the research team not only inspected the supply and demand situation of the next cotton year, but also conveyed the idea of Xinjiang cotton storage in advance.
According to the statement at the time, the original storage plan was 300,000 tons, and the initial plan was to be carried out in two phases. If 300,000 tons cannot solve the problem of Xinjiang cotton, the possibility of expanding the storage plan is not ruled out, but if the 150,000 tons cannot be completed, there will be no second phase of storage.
In addition, the research team also stressed that the purpose of this purchase and storage is to solve the problem of arrears of cotton loans in Xinjiang, and the government has no intention of guiding cotton prices.
Chen Xiaoyan said that Xinjiang, as an important cotton producing area in China, accounts for about one-third of the country's cotton output every year, and the supply is very stable. However, at least 70% of the annual purchase of Xinjiang cotton relies on loans from the Agricultural Development Bank, which are issued in September and October when the new cotton is listed, and from June to the end of August of the following year, "double knots" (that is, the principal and interest need to be returned to the bank), so that enterprises can continue to obtain bank financing in the next year.
However, since last year, the situation of downstream cotton spinning enterprises has become increasingly difficult, and the demand for cotton has shrunk accordingly, and cotton prices have also fallen again and again. The industry is in a recession, but the cotton output is higher than previously expected, making Xinjiang cotton, which is inconvenient to transport, seriously unsalable.
Shi Jianwei, vice president of the China Cotton Association, said on August 29 at the Wuhan cotton situation analysis meeting that in 2007/08, the national cotton output was not less than 8 million tons, higher than the 7.6 million tons released by the National Bureau of Statistics at the beginning of the year, taking into account the 2.5 million tons imported in the whole year, the national cotton supply for the year was 10.5 million tons.
According to the data released by the Xinjiang Development and Reform Commission, as of the end of July, the region had purchased a total of 3.29 million tons of new cotton, a year-on-year increase of 50.3%, while the region's supply and marketing cooperatives sold a total of 1.571 million tons of lint, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9%. According to this estimate, about 1.72 million tons of cotton in Xinjiang are for sale.
The public information of the Agricultural Development Bank also shows that from September to October 20, 2007, the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Branch of the Agricultural Development Bank has issued a total of 16.5 billion yuan of loans for the purchase of new cotton, supporting enterprises to purchase 16.238 million quintals of cotton, and as of the end of June this year, the bank's loan recovery rate was only 70%, down 19 percentage points from the same period last year.
"This collection and storage is precisely to solve the 5 billion outstanding loans!" said the aforementioned insider.
Subsidy policy in the pipeline
Textile Network analyst Wang Qianqian said on August 31 that although the storage is invalid, the market is generally expected to be from mid-September to October during the new cotton market, if cotton sales are still sluggish, the government may also introduce new favorable policies.
According to people familiar with the matter, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry Information, and the All-China Federation of Supply and Marketing are discussing specific measures to favor policies, which is also one of the factors for their visit to Xinjiang for investigation.
Wang Qianjin predicts that the measures mainly include three aspects: first, it is possible to set up a low protective price for cotton to protect the interests of cotton farmers, second, to consider increasing subsidies for upstream cotton farmers and downstream cotton spinning enterprises in view of the unsalable cotton, and third, it is possible to start a new round of storage in the new year of 2008/09. hHzPG1UySw
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